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SEBASTIAN J. VENEZIANO
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The Promontory

Fortress Iceland: The Argument For a Renewed Military Presence to Secure the GIUK Gap and Deter Potential Russian Aggression Along NATO's North Flank.

6/26/2025

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Originally posted 5/26/24
Iceland, a founding member of NATO, once had a defense force in the form of the United States military to deter Nazi Germany from occupying the country in WWII and later its presence was used in deterring and containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War along the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, and United Kingdom) Gap.  Since 2006 however, Iceland has been void of a standing defense force apart from occasional NATO drills being held on the island and rotating aerial patrol missions by NATO states.  Given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward NATO from Russian President Vladimir Putin's government, is the time right to have an U.S. military presence back in Iceland to protect a country with no military yet a vital piece of the GIUK Gap?   This piece argues for the consideration of such a presence given two conditions are met; money plus available military personnel to effectively project a NATO presence along the Gap and, most importantly, respect for Iceland's sovereignty and their own foreign policy decisions outside of American influence.  

(New comment added since the first upload of this post).  Much has been said in the media of the Trump administration's efforts to 'annex' Greenland.  While a very important anchor of the GIUK Gap, I do not think that the administration will follow through on such initiatives nor would I think it a good idea; Denmark, a NATO member, provides defense for the territory and would allow the U.S. to defend it in the event of a foreign invading force under NATO's Article V. 
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The UN's Gordian Knot

6/25/2025

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This post was made shortly after US Ambassador Robert Wood's veto in a UN vote for a ceasefire for hostilities in Gaza and is now posted again in its origial text with no edits. While Israel's defense forces have withered Hamas' capabilities, Palestinian lives hang in the balance and Hamas leadership still have not returned its hostages and has not surrendered.  As the EU has come around recently publically declaring that Iran (Hamas's patron) should never have a nuclear weapon in its arsenal, they should also declare openly that Hamas is a terrorist organization veiled behind political declarations and further add that its leadership and ideology be permanently finished.  To declare Palestinian sovereignty under Hamas leadership will only prolong this conflict and the knot will never be loosened for peace in the region. 

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Is Biden falling in a Sunk Cost Trap in Ukraine?

6/25/2025

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This post was orginally made in December, 2023. At the time, political wrangling in Congress with a Republican-majority house was seeking to keep the purse strings drawn tight to the Biden administration's request for more aid to Ukraine.  Since the original post date to now, the situation in Ukraine has started to look more like the Grand Est region in France with minimal gains on both sides. While the the EU has since stepped up its committment to Ukraine's defense and a new Trump administration seemingly wary to provide large amounts of aid to the country, it now falls on President Trump to decide if any more bets will be placed in the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. 
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